US - RUSSIA

U.S.-Russia ties soured further by Georgia crisis

By Sue Pleming

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Washington's poor relations with Moscow have soured further over Russia's military action against Georgia and experts say it will be impossible for President George W. Bush to mend them before his term ends.

An unidentified military aircraft is seen near anti-missile flares over the town of Gori, about 80 km from Tbilisi, August 12, 2008. (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

"This is the most intense crisis in U.S.-Russia relations since the end of the Cold War," said Russia expert Stephen Jones, a professor at Mount Holyoke College in Massachusetts.

With just months before Bush leaves office in January, 2009, there had been efforts to focus on areas of cooperation and paper over disagreements on a missile defense shield in Europe proposed by Washington and a strong U.S. push for NATO membership for Georgia.

But experts say a rapprochement is unlikely and Russia's actions in Georgia will make it tough for a new U.S. president -- whether it is Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, who has taken a hard line against Russia.

"This is a setback for U.S.-Russia relations and it will make it very difficult for this administration to push forward any kind of positive initiative," said James Collins, former U.S. ambassador to Russia.

He predicted Russia's military action in Georgia and its breakaway regions, would also make it harder for "pragmatists" in Washington.

"This will confirm the views of those that have been Russia critics and have taken the harder line. They will be saying, 'I told you so,'" said Collins, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

A senior U.S. official warned that Russia's integration into the World Trade Organization and other global clubs may now be at stake because of its actions in Georgia, adding "that's what's at stake when Russia engages in behavior that looks like it's from another time."

Former senior State Department official Steven Pifer predicted the focus of the administration in the waning months would be more on Afghanistan and Iraq rather than Russia.

"Unless someone has a particularly brilliant idea to give it some impetus, there should be a do-no-damage mode (with Russia) before January 2009," he said.

REGIONAL INFLUENCE

Although the Georgia crisis has damaged ties, it was in America's national interest to continue dealing with Moscow on many issues, one of which is Iran's nuclear program, said State Department spokesman Robert Wood.

"It has affected the relationship. There is no doubt," he said. "But we will continue to work with Russia."

Moscow's military action in Georgia followed years of bellicose statements and promises by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other officials to rebuild Russia's military might.

The conflict has renewed concerns that a nationalist Russia, strengthened by oil revenues, will seek to directly influence states in the formerly Soviet sphere.

The impact on U.S. influence in the region is uncertain but experts say the United States cannot ignore Russia's wealth and strategic influence.

Washington's lack of leverage with Moscow was underscored by Europe's lead role in mediating. France's President Nicolas Sarkozy took a lead role and was in Moscow on Tuesday as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced a halt to military operations in Georgia.

The Bush administration grappled with how to respond, delayed sending an envoy for days and relied on key staff who were on vacation, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, a Russia specialist.

Washington's close ties with Georgia, which Bush has hailed as a beacon of democracy, meant the rest of the world did not see the United States as an honest broker in the conflict.

Some Russia experts believe the United States dropped the ball by putting too much faith in Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Not enough was done to restrain his actions in South Ossetia, which triggered the crisis.

"We thought Saakashvili was going to be a nice prudent democrat and failed to look at the signs. We talk ourselves into these things," said Robert Hunter, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO now with RAND Organization.

Not enough attention was paid to intelligence which showed a build-up of Russian military hardware and troops in the region before the invasion, said Hunter.

The State Department's Wood rejected such suggestions. "I don't think there was a failure of intelligence or U.S. policy here," he said. "We have been working the diplomatic track on this and the Russians clearly over-reacted. This was plain and simple, blatant aggression on the part of Russia."

Copyright © 2008 Reuters

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